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Population Ageing and Pension System Reform in China: A Computable Overlapping-Generations General Equilibrium Model Analysis

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  • Hongxin Li
  • Marcel Merette
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    Abstract

    Over the next 50 years, China will face an increase of its old-age population by approximately three times. Such a demographic change may result in a large increase of pension payments, which would require a significant rise in the pension contribution rate. This also implies important intergenerational redistribution issues and may even harm living standards as a whole. This paper analyses for China the economic impact of an ageing population by means of a computable dynamic general equilibrium model with an overlapping generations structure. The paper explores the effect on the social security system and economic development of China under alternative scenarios for the benefit rates on pensions, retirement age and technological progress. Our research indicates that a pension reform plus positive technological progress can compensate for the menace of a decline in living standards for both seniors and working generations.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14765280500317908
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies.

    Volume (Year): 3 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 263-277

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:jocebs:v:3:y:2005:i:3:p:263-277

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    Related research

    Keywords: Population ageing; pension system reform; CGE model; OLG structure;

    References

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    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 62, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:
    1. Jan Hagemejer & Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2013. "Efficiency of the pension reform: the welfare effects of various fiscal closures," Working Papers 2013-23, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.

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