IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/jnlbes/v40y2022i2p559-577.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Discrete Mixtures for High-Frequency Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Leopoldo Catania
  • Roberto Di Mari
  • Paolo Santucci de Magistris

Abstract

The tick structure of the financial markets entails discreteness of stock price changes. Based on this empirical evidence, we develop a multivariate model for discrete price changes featuring a mechanism to account for the large share of zero returns at high frequency. We assume that the observed price changes are independent conditional on the realization of two hidden Markov chains determining the dynamics and the distribution of the multivariate time series at hand. We study the properties of the model, which is a dynamic mixture of zero-inflated Skellam distributions. We develop an expectation-maximization algorithm with closed-form M-step that allows us to estimate the model by maximum likelihood. In the empirical application, we study the joint distribution of the price changes of a number of assets traded on NYSE. Particular focus is dedicated to the assessment of the quality of univariate and multivariate density forecasts, and of the precision of the predictions of moments like volatility and correlations. Finally, we look at the predictability of price staleness and its determinants in relation to the trading activity on the financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Leopoldo Catania & Roberto Di Mari & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2022. "Dynamic Discrete Mixtures for High-Frequency Prices," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 559-577, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:40:y:2022:i:2:p:559-577
    DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2020.1840994
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/07350015.2020.1840994
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/07350015.2020.1840994?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maria Ludovica Drudi & Giulio Carlo Venturi, 2023. "Assessing the liquidity premium in the Italian bond market," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 795, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Di Mari, Roberto & Bakk, Zsuzsa & Oser, Jennifer & Kuha, Jouni, 2023. "A two-step estimator for multilevel latent class analysis with covariates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119994, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Vladim'ir Hol'y, 2022. "An Intraday GARCH Model for Discrete Price Changes and Irregularly Spaced Observations," Papers 2211.12376, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    4. Chengyu Li & Luyi Shen & Guoqi Qian, 2023. "Online Hybrid Neural Network for Stock Price Prediction: A Case Study of High-Frequency Stock Trading in the Chinese Market," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-19, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:40:y:2022:i:2:p:559-577. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/UBES20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.