Factors driving current account performance of South Asian economies: A comparative empirical analysis

Considering annual data from 1980 to 2020, this study attempts to investigate major factors determining Current Account Deficits (CADs) for five South Asian economies (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka) in the South Asian Region. Using VAR estimation framework on a basic model of CAD, it is observed that exchange rate depreciation majorly helps to improve the Current Account Balances (CABs), whereas increased per capita income, trade openness, net foreign capital inflows don’t pose major threats to deterioration in their CABs of countries. While fiscal deficit doesn’t have substantial effect on CAB except for Bangladesh and Nepal, increased savings have an unfavourable effect on CAB, which is a major policy concern for almost all the countries in the region. Given the trends of liberalisation which is intensifying over time along with sustained growth of per capita incomes across economies, we conclude that unless some sectoral import restrictions are imposed along with ensuring the stability of exchange rates and productive allocation of external credits, the economies are likely to experience deterioration in their CABs and macro policy environment.