Global value chains and shadow economy: A multi-dimensional analysis

This article investigates the impacts of global value chain (GVC) participation on the shadow economy size (SES). GVC participation is classified by the source of the value-added in exports, looking both backward and forward from the perspective of a reference country. First, by using a global sample of 33 developed and 23 developing countries during the 2005–2015 period, the empirical results demonstrate that GVC participation has a negative impact on SES. Second, our findings confirm the presence of a non-linear bell-shaped association between backward GVC and SES while forward GVC has a significant increasingly negative influence on the SES. Third, the positive effects of backward GVC on SES are greater for developing countries, while the forward GVC plays a more critical role in reducing SES in developed countries. Finally, in the short term, both backward and forward GVC participation reduce SES, but the effects follow a U-shaped curve. In the long-term, there is evidence on the bell-shaped non-linear relationship between backward GVC and SES in developing countries, and between forward GVC and SES in developed countries. Backward GVC is an effective tool to control the SES of developing countries, while forward GVC is more important for developed countries.