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Asymmetries exist in the Feldstein–Horioka relationship

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  • Hamid Raza
  • Gylfi Zoega
  • Stephen Kinsella

Abstract

Most studies assume symmetry between saving and investment changes. They are wrong to do so. We model the response of investment to positive and negative changes in saving for 17 OECD countries from 1960 to 2015. We use both panel and time series methods. We find that negative changes in saving have a stronger effect on investment than positive changes in saving do. In the short run, causality only runs from negative changes in saving to investment. In the long run, both negative and positive changes in saving Granger cause investment. Models relying on saving-investment symmetry in the long run are called into question. Policies assuming symmetric effects throughout the business cycle are similarly flawed.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamid Raza & Gylfi Zoega & Stephen Kinsella, 2018. "Asymmetries exist in the Feldstein–Horioka relationship," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 667-684, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:27:y:2018:i:6:p:667-684
    DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2017.1418412
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    Cited by:

    1. Naib ALAKBAROV & Yılmaz BAYAR, 2021. "International Financial Market Integration and The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle: Evidence from Emerging Market Economies," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 143-165, December.
    2. Duran, Hasan Engin & Ferreira-Lopes, Alexandra, 2022. "The Revival Of The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle And Moderation Of Capital Flows After The Global Financial Crisis (2008/09)," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).

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