Economic growth targets and green total factor productivity: evidence from China

This study explores the impact of economic growth targets on green total factor productivity (GTFP) based on a panel Tobit model and two manual datasets of 30 Chinese provinces from 2002 to 2019. We find that economic growth targets significantly inhibit GTFP, which is more pronounced in provinces that have high incentives when setting targets, use hard constraints when announcing targets, and fulfill their targets. In addition, we find that economic growth targets inhibit GTFP by undermining economic efficiency and aggravating environmental pollution. Moreover, the command-controlled environmental regulations weaken the inhibitory effect on GTFP, while market-motivated environmental regulations aggravate this inhibitory effect. Our findings confirm that the promotion assessment system based on economic performance leads to the irrationality of local governments in establishing economic growth targets, and the local governments pursue economic growth at the cost of development quality and sustainability.