Sources of uncertainties in environmental assessment: Lessons about uncertainty disclosure and communication from an oil sands extraction project in Northern Alberta

This study investigates practices of uncertainty disclosure and communication in Canadian environmental assessment (EA) in the context of the Joslyn North Oil Sands Mine project. Nineteen interviews with project stakeholders were conducted, revealing significant uncertainties about the project, attributed to multiple factors including lack of clarity in the terms of reference and requirements of the proponent; the project’s predicted impacts and proponent commitments to mitigation; cumulative effects and the potential for effects interaction with other projects; Aboriginal engagement, including engagement processes and broader socio-political context; and poor uncertainty disclosure and communication practices. Some uncertainties were disclosed but at times downplayed to render the project more palatable through the EA process. Informants stated that this is not an uncommon occurrence in oil sands EA. Recommendations to improve uncertainty disclosure and communication in EA and enhance the consideration of uncertainties in decision-making are provided.