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The effect of political volatility on capital markets in EU accession and neighborhood countries

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  • Christopher A. Hartwell

Abstract

Political instability has the potential to disrupt financial markets. But how do political institutions affect financial movements in an environment where all institutions are in flux? This paper looks at the effects of formal and informal political volatility in the new EU countries of central and eastern Europe, in the Eastern Neighborhood, and farther afield in Central Asia to answer this question. Using asymmetric GARCH modeling on monthly data, I find that informal political volatility has a significant negative effect on stock returns, while formal political institutions generate much higher financial volatility than changes in monetary policy.

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  • Christopher A. Hartwell, 2018. "The effect of political volatility on capital markets in EU accession and neighborhood countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 260-280, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jecprf:v:21:y:2018:i:4:p:260-280
    DOI: 10.1080/17487870.2017.1311793
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    Cited by:

    1. Puscasu Ela-Andrada, 2023. "The Impact of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine on the Capital Markets from the CEE Countries," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 1791-1806, July.
    2. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2018. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 598-615.
    3. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2020. "What have we learnt from modelling stock returns in Nigeria: Higgledy-piggledy?," MPRA Paper 110382, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jun 2021.
    4. Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Adesiyan, Femi, 2020. "The Persistence of Stock Market Returns during the Presidential elections in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 99390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jannils Łukasz, 2021. "The concept of political instability in economic research," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 57(3), pages 268-284, September.
    6. Alanoud Al‐Maadid & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2021. "Political tension and stock markets in the Arabian Peninsula," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 679-683, January.

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