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Fundamental or speculative factors in the housing markets of emerging economies? Some lessons from China

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  • Hrushikesh Mallick
  • Mantu Mahalik

Abstract

Using quarterly data, 1999:Q2–2009:Q3, we empirically examine the key macro determinants of housing prices for China’s residential market. Employing Granger causality and Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) models, we find that there exists strong bivariate causality between house price increases and its determinants. The variance decomposition suggests that speculative factors reflected by past increases in real house price contribute a relatively larger proportion to house price rises relative to fundamental factors.

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  • Hrushikesh Mallick & Mantu Mahalik, 2012. "Fundamental or speculative factors in the housing markets of emerging economies? Some lessons from China," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 57-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jecprf:v:15:y:2012:i:1:p:57-67
    DOI: 10.1080/17487870.2011.642580
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    Cited by:

    1. Coskun Yener & Jadevicius Arvydas, 2017. "Is there a Housing Bubble in Turkey?," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 25(1), pages 48-73, March.
    2. Al Refai, Hisham & Eissa, Mohamad Abdelaziz & Zeitun, Rami, 2021. "The dynamics of the relationship between real estate and stock markets in an energy-based economy: The case of Qatar," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).

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