Innovation Strategies Matter: Latin America’s Middle-Income Trap Meets China and Globalisation

Productive transformation from commodity production to higher value added activities is at the heart of the transition from a middle-income to a high income economy. The key is the development of domestic innovation capabilities to move up the value chain on a broad enough basis to generate sustained productivity growth. Since WW II few countries have achieved this transition. Under the market-led strategies of the past 30–40 years, Latin American countries have become trapped at the middle-income level. Informed by a structural-evolutionary approach, I investigate the reasons for the poor productivity performance in the region. I analyse the ‘within’ and ‘across’ sector sources of productivity growth in nine Latin American countries over the period 1950–2011, compare it with China’s, and link the outcomes to public policy, both with respect to state-led and market-led strategies, and to specific policies aimed at advancing innovation. I argue that the current globalisation process, particularly the rise of China, have shifted the goal posts for middle-income countries and increased the urgency to develop domestic innovation capabilities.