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Interest Rates and Investment in East Asia: An Empirical Evaluation of Various Financial Liberalisation Hypotheses

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  • Pradeep Agrawal

Abstract

The article attempts to shed light on the appropriate interest rate policy in the process of economic development. To this end, we examine whether higher interest rates lead to higher investment (and growth) in four East Asian countries. We find that the investment rate went up with real interest rates up to 9 per cent in all four countries but started declining at still higher interest rates in two of the countries. Further, a banking crisis occurred in each of the three countries for which the real interest rates exceeded 9 per cent. This evidence rejects the 'neo-structuralist' argument. Nor does it support unbridled financial liberalisation. Yet, it provides only limited support to Stiglitz's case for 'mild financial repression (real interest rates near zero)' since reducing real interest rates from say, 6 to 3 or 0 per cent would have reduced investment. The optimum policy seems to be closest to McKinnon's 'restrained financial liberalisation' policy, that is, liberalisation with a moderate upper limit (about 6 or 7 per cent) on the real interest rates.

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  • Pradeep Agrawal, 2004. "Interest Rates and Investment in East Asia: An Empirical Evaluation of Various Financial Liberalisation Hypotheses," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 142-173.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:40:y:2004:i:3:p:142-173
    DOI: 10.1080/0022038042000213238
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    Cited by:

    1. John SERIEUX, 2009. "Partial Dollarization, Exchange Rates, And Firm Investment In Paraguay," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 47(1), pages 53-80, March.
    2. Tai-Kuang Ho & Kuo-Chun Yeh, 2014. "The Post-Asian Crisis Drop In Investment: The Cases Of Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, And Thailand," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(3), pages 618-638, July.
    3. Demir, Firat, 2006. "Volatility of short term capital flows, financial anarchy and private investment in emerging markets," MPRA Paper 3080, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2007.
    4. Mr. Il Houng Lee & Woon Gyu Choi, 2010. "Monetary Transmission of Global Imbalances in Asian Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/214, International Monetary Fund.

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