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Time fused coefficient SIR model with application to COVID-19 epidemic in the United States

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  • Hou-Cheng Yang
  • Yishu Xue
  • Yuqing Pan
  • Qingyang Liu
  • Guanyu Hu

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a Susceptible–Infected–Removal (SIR) model with time fused coefficients. In particular, our proposed model discovers the underlying time homogeneity pattern for the SIR model's transmission rate and removal rate via Bayesian shrinkage priors. MCMC sampling for the proposed method is facilitated by the nimble package in R. Extensive simulation studies are carried out to examine the empirical performance of the proposed methods. We further apply the proposed methodology to analyze different levels of COVID-19 data in the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Hou-Cheng Yang & Yishu Xue & Yuqing Pan & Qingyang Liu & Guanyu Hu, 2023. "Time fused coefficient SIR model with application to COVID-19 epidemic in the United States," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(11-12), pages 2373-2387, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:50:y:2023:i:11-12:p:2373-2387
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2021.1936467
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