IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/japsta/v50y2023i11-12p2343-2359.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On regime changes of COVID-19 outbreak

Author

Listed:
  • A. Tchorbadjieff
  • L. P. Tomov
  • V. Velev
  • G. Dezhov
  • V. Manev
  • P. Mayster

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a very serious impact on societies and caused large-scale economic changes and death toll worldwide. The first cases were detected in China, but soon the virus spread quickly worldwide and the intensity of newly reported infections grew high during this initial period almost everywhere. Later, despite all imposed measures, the intensity shifted abruptly multiple times during the two-year period between 2020 and 2022 causing waves of too high infection rates in almost every part of the world. To target this problem, we assume the data heterogeneity as multiple consecutive regime changes. The research study includes the development of a model based on automatic regime change detection and their combination with the linear birth-death process for long-run data fits. The results are empirically verified on data for 38 countries and US states for the period from February 2020 to April 2022. Finally, the initial phase (conditions) properties of infection development are studied.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Tchorbadjieff & L. P. Tomov & V. Velev & G. Dezhov & V. Manev & P. Mayster, 2023. "On regime changes of COVID-19 outbreak," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(11-12), pages 2343-2359, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:50:y:2023:i:11-12:p:2343-2359
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2023.2177625
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/02664763.2023.2177625
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/02664763.2023.2177625?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:50:y:2023:i:11-12:p:2343-2359. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CJAS20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.