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Statistical modelling of COVID-19 pandemic development applying branching processes

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  • D. Atanasov
  • Vessela Stoimenova
  • Nikolay M. Yanev

Abstract

In this paper, a statistical model for COVID-19 infection dynamics is described, using only the observed daily statistics of infected individuals. For this purpose, two special classes of branching processes without or with an immigration component are considered. These models are intended to estimate the main parameter of the infection and to give a prediction of the mean value of the non-observed population of the infected individuals. This is a serious advantage in comparison with other more complicated models where the officially reported data are not sufficient for estimation of the model parameters. The model is applied for different regions in the world and the corresponding parameters of the infection dynamics are estimated.

Suggested Citation

  • D. Atanasov & Vessela Stoimenova & Nikolay M. Yanev, 2023. "Statistical modelling of COVID-19 pandemic development applying branching processes," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(11-12), pages 2330-2342, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:50:y:2023:i:11-12:p:2330-2342
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2021.2006154
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