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Lower posterior death probabilities from a quick medical response in road traffic accidents

Author

Listed:
  • Antonio S.M. Arroyo
  • Antonio Garc�a-Ferrer
  • Aránzazu de Juan Fernández
  • Roc�o Sánchez-Mangas

Abstract

Introduction : We use data from Spain on roads and motorways traffic accidents in May 2004 to quantify the statistical association between quick medical response time and mortality rate. Method : Probit and logit parameters are estimated by a Bayesian method in which samples from the posterior densities are obtained through an MCMC simulation scheme. We provide posterior credible intervals and posterior partial effects of a quick medical response at several time levels over which we express our prior beliefs. Results : A reduction of 5 min, from a 25-min response-time level, is associated with lower posterior probabilities of death in roads and motorways accidents of 24% and 30%, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio S.M. Arroyo & Antonio Garc�a-Ferrer & Aránzazu de Juan Fernández & Roc�o Sánchez-Mangas, 2013. "Lower posterior death probabilities from a quick medical response in road traffic accidents," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 40-58, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:40:y:2013:i:1:p:40-58
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2012.727788
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