IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/irapec/v33y2019i4p505-522.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inflation expectations of Brazilian consumers: an analysis based on the FGV survey

Author

Listed:
  • Aloisio Campelo
  • Marco Malgarini
  • Viviane Seda Bittencourt
  • Vitor Vidal Velho

Abstract

An accurate assessment of inflation expectations is crucial for the management of monetary policies. However, expectations are not directly observed and are hence normally inferred either from the interest rate structure or from surveys of professional forecasters. Alternatively, a direct measure may be obtained from consumer surveys. The aim of this paper is to study the formation of inflation expectations in Brazil, using a novel dataset based on the FGV/IBRE consumer survey. Basing our model on the rational inattention hypothesis, we find that individual heterogeneity plays a very significant role in shaping individual expectations; also, Brazilians adjust expectations to current inflation and to a fixed reference value, while professional forecasts do not play a very relevant role.

Suggested Citation

  • Aloisio Campelo & Marco Malgarini & Viviane Seda Bittencourt & Vitor Vidal Velho, 2019. "Inflation expectations of Brazilian consumers: an analysis based on the FGV survey," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 505-522, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:33:y:2019:i:4:p:505-522
    DOI: 10.1080/02692171.2018.1515897
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/02692171.2018.1515897
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/02692171.2018.1515897?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Medel, 2021. "Searching for the Best Inflation Forecasters within a Consumer Perceptions Survey: Microdata Evidence from Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 899, Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:33:y:2019:i:4:p:505-522. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CIRA20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.