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Does Financial Development 'Lead' Economic Growth?

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  • Jordan Shan
  • Alan Morris
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    Abstract

    We use the Toda & Yamamoto (1995) causality testing procedure to investigate the relationship, if any, between financial development and economic growth.We use quarterly data from 19 OECD countries and China, and use total credit and interest spread as indicators of financial development. We also consider the impact of financial development on investment and productivity. We find meagre evidence that financial development 'leads' economic growth, either directly or indirectly. This casts further doubt on claims that financial development is a necessary and perhaps sufficient precursor to economic growth.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal International Review of Applied Economics.

    Volume (Year): 16 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 153-168

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:16:y:2002:i:2:p:153-168

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    1. Panicos O. Demetriades & Philip Arestis, 1996. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence," Keele Department of Economics Discussion Papers (1995-2001) 96/16, Department of Economics, Keele University.
    2. Ross Levine, 1998. "The legal environment, banks, and long-run economic growth," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug, pages 596-620.
    3. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, . "Financial Dependence and Growth," CRSP working papers 344, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    4. Zapata, Hector O. & Rambaldi, Alicia N., 1996. "Monte Carlo Evidence On Cointegration And Causation," Staff Papers 31690, Louisiana State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness.
    5. Enrica Detragiache & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, 1998. "Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility," IMF Working Papers 98/83, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    7. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
    8. Demetriades, Panicos O & Luintel, Kul B, 1996. "Financial Development, Economic Growth and Banker Sector Controls: Evidence from India," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(435), pages 359-74, March.
    9. King, Robert G & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 717-37, August.
    10. Shan, Jordan Z & Morris, Alan G & Sun, Fiona, 2001. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: An Egg-and-Chicken Problem?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 443-54, August.
    11. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    12. Blackburn, Keith & Hung, Victor T Y, 1998. "A Theory of Growth, Financial Development and Trade," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 65(257), pages 107-24, February.
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    Cited by:
    1. Bassam AbuAl-Foul & Ismail Genc & Musa Darayseh, . "On the Causal Link between Financial Development and Economic Growth: Case of Jordan," Economics Working Papers 18-04/2014, School of Business Administration, American University of Sharjah.
    2. Peter Lawrence, 2006. "Finance and development: why should causation matter?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(7), pages 997-1016.
    3. Johann Burgstaller, 2006. "Financial predictors of real activity and the propagation of aggregate shocks," Economics working papers 2006-16, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.

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