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Sense and sensibility: using a model to examine the relationship between public pre-school places and fertility

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  • Maria T. Sanz
  • Vicente Díaz Gandasegui
  • Begoña Elizalde-San Miguel

Abstract

This paper presents a stochastic dynamic mathematical model, in which a Family Policy Index (XFPI) is included to measure and compare two different models of provision of resources to support families with children from 0 to 3 years old. The main variables in this model are the XFPI, fertility, mortality, emigration and immigration rates. This mathematical model was validated in two different countries, Spain and Norway, during the 2007–2015 period. A sensitivity analysis was applied to simulate the future trend (2016–2030), examining the influence of providing public pre-school services (0 to 3 years) on (XISF). The results obtained show that these services may indeed have an influence on fertility rates, as long as they are developed extensively.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria T. Sanz & Vicente Díaz Gandasegui & Begoña Elizalde-San Miguel, 2019. "Sense and sensibility: using a model to examine the relationship between public pre-school places and fertility," The Journal of Mathematical Sociology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 213-230, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:gmasxx:v:43:y:2019:i:4:p:213-230
    DOI: 10.1080/0022250X.2019.1583226
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    Cited by:

    1. Vicente Díaz Gandasegui & Begoña Elizalde-San Miguel & Maria T. Sanz, 2021. "Back to the Future: a Sensitivity Analysis to Predict Future Fertility Rates Considering the Influence of Family Policies—The Cases of Spain and Norway," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 943-968, April.

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