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Mediating Civil War Settlements and the Duration of Peace

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  • Mehmet Gurses
  • Nicolas Rost
  • Patrick McLeod

Abstract

In this article, we examine the impact of international mediation attempts during civil war on the duration of peace once the war has ended. We include several aspects of the mediation attempt in our theoretical framework and our empirical tests, but we also control for other characteristics of the conflict and the country. While studies often find that decisive victories lead to a more durable peace, we expect that different types of mediation attempts have a distinct impact on the duration of peace after a civil war. In empirical tests on civil wars from 1945--1995 with Cox and Weibull event history models, we find the presence of mediation leads to a longer peace, while mediated agreements and superpower mediation attempts shorten the peace. In addition, several characteristics of both country and previous conflict impact how long the peace will last.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Gurses & Nicolas Rost & Patrick McLeod, 2008. "Mediating Civil War Settlements and the Duration of Peace," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 129-155, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:34:y:2008:i:2:p:129-155
    DOI: 10.1080/03050620802043362
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    Cited by:

    1. Dominic Rohner, 2018. "Success Factors for Peace Treaties: A Review of Theory and Evidence," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 18.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    2. Hosli Madeleine O. & Hoekstra Anke, 2013. "What Fosters Enduring Peace? An Analysis of Factors Influencing Civil War Resolution," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 123-155, August.
    3. Ramzi Badran, 2014. "Intrastate peace agreements and the durability of peace," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(2), pages 193-217, April.
    4. Govinda Clayton & Han Dorussen, 2022. "The effectiveness of mediation and peacekeeping for ending conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 150-165, March.

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