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A formula for the economic value of return predictability

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  • Nicholas Taylor

Abstract

This paper provides a formula for a commonly used measure of the economic value of asset return predictability. In doing this, we find that there is a strong connection between this measure and a traditional statistical measure of predictive quality. In particular, we demonstrate that the maximum amount an investor is willing to pay for predictability knowledge (the performance fee) is a simple transformation of the R -super-2 statistic associated with the predictor equation. We illustrate the use of these results with an application to the Ibbotson US bond and equity data (and a set of pertinent predictors), and via application to the results published in Fama and French [1988. Dividend yields and expected stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics 22: 3--25], Balvers, Cosimano, and McDonald [1990. Predicting stock returns in an efficient market. Journal of Finance 45: 1109--28], Lettau and Ludvigson [2001. Consumption, aggregate wealth and expected stock returns. Journal of Finance 56: 815--49], and Santa-Clara and Yan [2010. Crashes, volatility, and the equity premium: Lessons from S&P 500 options. Review of Economics and Statistics 92: 435--51].

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Taylor, 2013. "A formula for the economic value of return predictability," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 37-53, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:19:y:2013:i:1:p:37-53
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2011.640340
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