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On the accuracy of gravity-RAS approaches used for inter-regional trade estimation: evidence using the 2005 inter-regional input–output table of Japan

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  • Julio Gustavo Fournier Gabela

Abstract

In contrast to international trade, it is still difficult to find regional trade statistics within a nation. Given that the gravity model continues to be very popular, we test two gravity-RAS approaches used for interregional trade estimation: a standard one and an extended version, which additionally estimates intra-regional flows. We assess the accuracy with the help of two measures and for different sectoral aggregation levels. For that, we use the survey-based 2005 interregional input–output table of Japan as a benchmark. Results show high overall accuracy levels for the standard approach, better than when using international data, albeit with heterogeneous errors for sectors and regions. We further find that the results of a multiregional input-output model are highly sensitive to the trade estimation approach and that errors slightly increase for increasing sectoral disaggregation levels. Results from an experiment based on a random number generator show how RAS influences results.

Suggested Citation

  • Julio Gustavo Fournier Gabela, 2020. "On the accuracy of gravity-RAS approaches used for inter-regional trade estimation: evidence using the 2005 inter-regional input–output table of Japan," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 521-539, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:32:y:2020:i:4:p:521-539
    DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1753662
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    Cited by:

    1. Mingkai Liu & Changxin Liu & Shouting Zhang & Baoyin Liu & Yi Sun & Xun Ge & Xinyu Wang & Hongyan Zhang, 2021. "Research on Industry Development Path Planning of Resource-Rich Regions in China from the Perspective of “Resources, Assets, Capital”," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-19, April.
    2. Yicheol Han & Stephan J. Goetz & Claudia Schmidt, 2021. "Visualizing Spatial Economic Supply Chains to Enhance Sustainability and Resilience," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-15, February.
    3. Mairi Spowage & Sharada Nia Davidson, 2021. "Improving the Quality of Regional Economic Indicators in the UK: A Framework for Interregional Trade Data Collection and Estimation," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Technical Reports ESCOE-TR-13, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    4. Ageliki Anagnostou & Pawel Gajewski, 2021. "Multi-Regional Input–Output Tables for Macroeconomic Simulations in Poland’s Regions," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-19, October.

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