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Probabilistic Modeling Of Workforce-Based Disruptions And Input-Output Analysis Of Interdependent Ripple Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Orsi
  • Joost Santos

Abstract

This paper extends the formulation of the input-output model to account for events that cause time varying and probabilistic workforce disruptions. One example of such an event is a pandemic, because the rates with which it affects the working population vary from period to period and are coupled with uncertainties. To address such complexities, the paper develops two extensions: (i) a method of translating unavailable workforce into a measure of sector productivity disruption, and (ii) a simulation framework to account for the possible variations in economic output losses. These extensions are implemented via a MATLAB program to simulate a pandemic scenario in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Orsi & Joost Santos, 2010. "Probabilistic Modeling Of Workforce-Based Disruptions And Input-Output Analysis Of Interdependent Ripple Effects," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 3-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:22:y:2010:i:1:p:3-18
    DOI: 10.1080/09535311003612419
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Amine El Haimar & Joost Santos, 2015. "A stochastic recovery model of influenza pandemic effects on interdependent workforce systems," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 987-1011, June.
    2. Adam Rose & Dan Wei, 2013. "Estimating The Economic Consequences Of A Port Shutdown: The Special Role Of Resilience," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 212-232, June.
    3. David Swanson & Luis Santamaria, 2021. "Pandemic Supply Chain Research: A Structured Literature Review and Bibliometric Network Analysis," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-22, January.
    4. Joost R. Santos & Lucia Castro Herrera & Krista Danielle S. Yu & Sheree Ann T. Pagsuyoin & Raymond R. Tan, 2014. "State of the Art in Risk Analysis of Workforce Criticality Influencing Disaster Preparedness for Interdependent Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(6), pages 1056-1068, June.
    5. Joost Santos, 2020. "Reflections on the impact of “flatten the curve” on interdependent workforce sectors," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 185-188, June.
    6. Krista Danielle S. Yu & Kathleen B. Aviso & Joost R. Santos & Raymond R. Tan, 2020. "The Economic Impact of Lockdowns: A Persistent Inoperability Input-Output Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, December.
    7. Reilly, Allison C. & Baroud, Hiba & Flage, Roger & Gerst, Michael D., 2021. "Sources of uncertainty in interdependent infrastructure and their implications," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    8. Giammetti, Raffaele & Papi, Luca & Teobaldelli, Désirée & Ticchi, Davide, 2022. "The optimality of age-based lockdown policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 722-738.

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