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Artificial intelligence: neither Utopian nor apocalyptic impacts soon

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  • Wim Naudé

Abstract

After a number of AI-winters, AI is back with a boom. There are concerns that it will disrupt society. The immediate concern is whether labor can win a ‘race against the robots’ and the longer-term concern is whether an artificial general intelligence (super-intelligence) can be controlled. This paper describes the nature and context of these concerns, reviews the current state of the empirical and theoretical literature in economics on the impact of AI on jobs and inequality, and discusses the challenge of AI arms races. It is concluded that despite the media hype neither massive jobs losses nor a ‘Singularity’ is imminent. In part, this is because current AI, based on deep learning, is expensive and difficult for most businesses to adopt, not only displaces but in fact also create jobs, and may not be the route to a super-intelligence. Thus AI is unlikely to have either Utopian or apocalyptic impacts soon. Considering Amara's Law, one should however be wary not to underestimate the long-run impacts of AI.

Suggested Citation

  • Wim Naudé, 2021. "Artificial intelligence: neither Utopian nor apocalyptic impacts soon," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 1-23, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecinnt:v:30:y:2021:i:1:p:1-23
    DOI: 10.1080/10438599.2020.1839173
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    Cited by:

    1. Almeida, Derick & Naudé, Wim & Sequeira, Tiago Neves, 2024. "Artificial Intelligence and the Discovery of New Ideas: Is an Economic Growth Explosion Imminent?," IZA Discussion Papers 16766, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Wim Naudé, 2023. "Late industrialisation and global value chains under platform capitalism," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 50(1), pages 91-119, March.
    3. Constanta-Nicoleta Bodea & Mario Paparic & Radu Ioan Mogos & Maria-Iuliana Dascalu, 2024. "Artificial Intelligence Adoption in the Workplace and Its Impact on the Upskilling and Reskilling Strategies," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 26(65), pages 126-126, February.
    4. Naudé, Wim, 2023. "Melancholy Hues: The Futility of Green Growth and Degrowth, and the Inevitability of Societal Collapse," IZA Discussion Papers 16139, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Gries, Thomas & Naudé, Wim, 2022. "Modelling artificial intelligence in economics," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 56, pages 1-12.

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