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Measuring global poverty before and during the pandemic: a political economy of overoptimism

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  • Andy Sumner
  • Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez
  • Christopher Hoy

Abstract

The contribution of this paper is to question the ‘official’ estimates of global monetary poverty up to and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue there is a political economy of overoptimism in the measurement of global poverty. Specifically, we show that the methodological and presentational choices can lead to an over optimistic view of the levels of, and trends in, global poverty. We provide an up-to-date critique of the global poverty estimates and demonstrate how patterns of poverty would differ if small changes in methodology were implemented. We conclude with a theoretical discussion of why such methodological choices that lead to an optimistic view of global poverty levels and trends are made. Subsequently, we propose an alternative approach to global poverty measurement.

Suggested Citation

  • Andy Sumner & Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez & Christopher Hoy, 2022. "Measuring global poverty before and during the pandemic: a political economy of overoptimism," Third World Quarterly, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 1-17, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ctwqxx:v:43:y:2022:i:1:p:1-17
    DOI: 10.1080/01436597.2021.1995712
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    Cited by:

    1. Hai-Anh Dang & Toan L.D. Huynh & Manh-Hung Nguyen, 2023. "Does the COVID-19 pandemic disproportionately affect the poor? Evidence from a six-country survey," Journal of Economics and Development, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(1), pages 2-18, December.
    2. Ravi Kanbur & Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez & Andy Sumner, 2022. "The global inequality boomerang," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-27, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Pullinger,John James & Serajuddin,Umar & Stacy,Brian William, 2024. "Reviewing Assessment Tools for Measuring Country Statistical Capacity," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10717, The World Bank.
    4. Hadi Alizadeh & Ayyoob Sharifi & Safiyeh Damanbagh & Hadi Nazarnia & Mohammad Nazarnia, 2023. "Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the social sphere and lessons for crisis management: a literature review," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2139-2164, July.
    5. Ariel Herbert Fambeu & Georges Dieudonné Mbondo & Patricia Tchawa Yomi, 2022. "Bigger or better? The effect of public spending on happiness in Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(4), pages 487-499, December.
    6. Ines A. Ferreira & Vincenzo Salvucci & Finn Tarp, 2022. "Poverty, inequality, and growth: trends, policies, and controversies," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-43, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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