Punctuated equilibrium and the dynamics of political participation: the case of letter writing

While extensive research has shown that policy outputs are punctuated, there is a paucity of research about the punctuation of public opinion and political participation. We know policymakers rely on political participation to understand public opinion, so we need to understand the patterns and flows of this participation, to help understanding democratic responsiveness, and how policy outputs behave. I advance punctuated equilibrium theory by applying it to individuals’ decision to participate, and the policy issue they choose to engage with. I argue that bounded rationality and disproportionate information processing, driven by media and interest group coverage of trigger events, will result in a punctuated equilibrium pattern in both the decision to participate and the issues focused on. Using new datasets on the volume and topic of letters to the Australian Prime Minister and American President, I find consistent evidence of punctuations, using weekly, fortnightly, and annual data, across Australia and America, notwithstanding institutional, cultural, and behavioural differences. These results extend punctuated equilibrium further up the policy process chain than has previously been done, supporting its claim as a “full theory of government information processing.” Doing this helps us to understand the difficulty in translating environmental and public demands into policy.