Trump, trust and the transatlantic relationship

This article provides an original analysis of the crisis in transatlantic relations during the Trump presidency by drawing on two theories of trust: Hoffman's work on trusting interstate relationships, focused on decision-makers' policies, and Keating and Ruzicka's work on hedging strategies. Hoffman conceptualizes interstate trust as when the trustees are expected to “do what is right” because of shared norms and values; we compare this fiduciary or moralistic approach with the predictive approach, which considers trust a strategic and rational choice made by state leaders with material interests and gains in mind. Applying this theoretical framework, we examine the impact of Trump's “America First” foreign policy on transatlantic relations, showing that there has been a pronounced shift from the fiduciary to the predictive form of trust, a development that challenges the very essence of transatlantic relations. Moreover, we also discuss the hedging initiatives adopted by the European allies in order to cope with this crisis of trust. The article concludes that in spite of periodic crises in the past, Trump's approach to allies and to transatlantic relations created a crisis of trust unlike any seen before, one which will not be overcome merely by a change of US president.