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State political uncertainty and local housing markets - Evidence from U.S. mid-term gubernatorial elections

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  • Chi-Young Choi

Abstract

Using U.S. county-level data, this paper finds a significant negative impact of state political uncertainty on local house price growth. A unit increase in state political uncertainty is associated with about 3.4% point decrease in county-level house price growth. The impact is asymmetric and varies widely across localities, with a weaker impact found in areas with a higher fraction of homeowners. The results are robust to endogeneity, sample selection, model specifications, and alternative measures of uncertainty. The main findings are further confirmed by a case study based on a difference-in-difference analysis.

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  • Chi-Young Choi, 2023. "State political uncertainty and local housing markets - Evidence from U.S. mid-term gubernatorial elections," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(57), pages 6717-6738, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:55:y:2023:i:57:p:6717-6738
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2023.2165618
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