Identification and correction of ratchet effect of residential land price: empirical study on urban agglomeration in China

This paper theoretically analyses the mechanism of the ratchet effect of land finance and adaptive expectations on residential land prices and discuss the distort factors and spatial characteristics of residential land price in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA) from 2008 to 2018. It is found that:(1) Land finance and adaptive expectations significantly drive the long-term growth of residential land prices and maintain the ratchet effect under the interaction. (2) There are significant spatial spillover benefits of residential land prices, and land finance and adaptive expectations not only drive the increase of local residential land prices but also have significant positive benefits on residential land prices in neighbouring areas. (3) Land price distortion is significant in municipalities directly under the central government and provincial capitals. However, residential land prices in cities farther away from large cities are lower than their reasonable values, and the distortion correction coefficient shows a spatially graded distribution spreading from large cities to the periphery. Land finance and adaptive expectations do not make residential land prices in all cities higher than their reasonable values. The above findings have some theoretical and policy implications for optimizing land administration.