Prospects for attaining the multidimensional poverty target of SDG 1.2: evidence from the most recent multiyear harmonized data for 75 developing countries

This paper uses recent multiyear harmonized data on multidimensional poverty for 75 developing countries to judge prospects for attaining SDG Target 1.2 of reducing multidimensional poverty by one-half. Exponential rate of decline in multidimensional poverty headcount is calculated and extrapolated to the SDG period 2015–2030 to see whether the rate of decline would lower multidimensional poverty headcount by 50% over the 15-year period. There are 43 countries in which the observed rate of decline is large enough to reduce the headcount by half in 15 years. These countries had a total population of 3.9 billion and multidimensional poverty headcount of 580.7 million. There are 24 countries, with multidimensional poverty headcount of 549.9 million, where rate of reduction is not large enough to lower MDP headcount by one-half in 15 years. There are 8 countries that may or may not make the target. The international community needs to focus on the 24 countries that are likely to miss the target even in the pre-COVID scenario studied in this research. When post-COVID data become available in a few years, it should be possible to reassess the situation and to judge the effect of COVID on prospects for reaching the SDG Target 1.2.