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The dynamic impacts of disease outbreak on vertical and spatial markets: the case of African Swine Fever in China

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  • Linjie Wang
  • Jean-Paul Chavas
  • Jian Li

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic effects of a disease outbreak on vertical and spatial markets, with an application to the African Swine Fever (ASF) and its impact on Chinese hog markets. Relying on a flexible representation of vertical and spatial price dynamics, we investigate how ASF affected the pork cycle and price transmission across markets. We find that the ASF outbreak had larger long-term effects on spatial prices than on vertical prices, likely reflecting inter-regional trade bans imposed by the government. Our analysis indicates that ASF contributed to shortening the period of the pork cycle. We also provide evidence that the ASF outbreak affected cointegration relations across markets, especially among regional markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Linjie Wang & Jean-Paul Chavas & Jian Li, 2023. "The dynamic impacts of disease outbreak on vertical and spatial markets: the case of African Swine Fever in China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(18), pages 2005-2023, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:55:y:2023:i:18:p:2005-2023
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2022.2101605
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    Cited by:

    1. Stevens, Andrew W. & Chavas, Jean-Paul & Crenshaw, Thomas D., 2023. "Compensatory growth, capacity constraints, and market timing: optimizing pork production," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335758, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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