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Leader-follower dynamics in real historical time: a Markovian test of non-linear causality between sail and steam (co-)development

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  • Bruno Damásio
  • Sandro Mendonça

Abstract

The most dramatic changes in modern shipping occurred with the application of new industrial-age technologies to oceanic transportation. In metal-hulled and engine-powered trading platforms, industrial-age steamers (especially tramps and liners) lead to marked increases in the average tonnage of a typical vessel crossing the seas of an expanding global economy. Some of the most important developments had to do with the substitution of traditional wind-driven ships by successive cohorts of vessels exploiting the comparative advantages of mechanization. In this paper, we deploy a set of both established and less-orthodox quantitative approaches to historical commercial shipping time-series so as to model the (complex) relationship between steam and sail performance. We find that, indeed, there is evidence of leader-follower dynamics during the later part of 19th century. This process of ‘creative destruction’ was non-linear.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Damásio & Sandro Mendonça, 2023. "Leader-follower dynamics in real historical time: a Markovian test of non-linear causality between sail and steam (co-)development," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(17), pages 1908-1918, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:55:y:2023:i:17:p:1908-1918
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2022.2100868
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