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Divisia monetary aggregates and US GDP nowcasting

Author

Listed:
  • Biyan Tang
  • Boniface Yemba
  • Dongfeng Chang

Abstract

This article nowcasts US quarterly real GDP growth rate with dynamic factor model (DFM) using Divisia Monetary Aggregate Index, Divisia M1, M2, M3, and exploits information from a large, unbalanced panel data. GDP nowcasting is evaluating the current quarter GDP given the available economic data up to the point when the nowcasting is conducted. GDP data is published quarterly with a substantial lag, while many monetary and financial decisions are made at a higher frequency. Therefore, nowcasting GDP has become an increasingly important task for central banks. This article uses DFM to nowcast GDP, compares the nowcasting results from DFM with the simple sum monetary aggregate M1, M2, M3, to the Model with weighted corresponding Divisia Index, then calculates the contributions of the Divisia Monetary index to US GDP nowcasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Biyan Tang & Boniface Yemba & Dongfeng Chang, 2020. "Divisia monetary aggregates and US GDP nowcasting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(32), pages 3538-3554, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:52:y:2020:i:32:p:3538-3554
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2020.1713983
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