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Crime during the business cycle: urban–rural differences

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  • Sediq Sameem
  • Kevin Sylwester

Abstract

Despite the abundant literature on how crime evolves over the business cycle, no consensus has arisen whether crime increases or decreases during recessions. The literature provides both positive and negative associations between the crime rate and the unemployment rate, a commonly used proxy for the business cycle. This study revisits this issue and uses county-level data from 1990 to 2013. It allows for differences as to how unemployment relates to both property crime and violent crime depending on the size of the counties. We find evidence of a positive association between unemployment and property crime that strengthens with county size. The results show the same pattern for violent crime but are statistically weaker. Our findings suggest that the positive association between property crime and unemployment that others have found is largely driven by more populous areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Sediq Sameem & Kevin Sylwester, 2018. "Crime during the business cycle: urban–rural differences," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(22), pages 2500-2508, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:50:y:2018:i:22:p:2500-2508
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2017.1400653
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    Cited by:

    1. Reihaneh Gaskari & Sarah Yercich, 2022. "Business Cycle and Crime: The Case of British Columbia, Canada," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 12(2), pages 3-34.
    2. Jonathan Torres‐Tellez & Alberto Montero Soler, 2023. "After the economic crisis of 2008: Economic conditions and crime in the last decade for the case of Spain," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 82(3), pages 223-239, May.

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