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British tourism demand elasticities in Mediterranean countries

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  • William Gatt
  • Joseph Falzon

Abstract

We use the almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model developed by Deaton and Muellbauer (1980) to estimate tourism demand elasticities for a number of Mediterranean countries (Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Spain and Turkey) in relation to tourists originating from the United Kingdom during the period 1963 to 2009. Using the restrictions imposed by theory, we find that the model is able to explain developments in market shares reasonably well, despite the large and at times sudden changes in market shares over the sample period. Our share estimates indicate that while Spain and Portugal managed to keep a stable market share over time, Malta and especially Italy lost market share to Cyprus, Greece and Turkey. Overall, we observe that Italy and Spain have the lowest own-price elasticities, whereas Greece, Portugal, Spain and Turkey are expenditure inelastic holiday destinations. We also improve over the traditional treatment of the AIDS model in the literature by studying the stability of the estimated elasticities over time using recursive estimates. The results indicate that some elasticities are indeed time varying and highlight the potential pitfalls of assuming fixed and stable elasticities over a long period, as is customary in the tourism literature.

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  • William Gatt & Joseph Falzon, 2014. "British tourism demand elasticities in Mediterranean countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(29), pages 3548-3561, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:46:y:2014:i:29:p:3548-3561
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.934432
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    Cited by:

    1. Martins, Luís Filipe & Gan, Yi & Ferreira-Lopes, Alexandra, 2017. "An empirical analysis of the influence of macroeconomic determinants on World tourism demand," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 248-260.
    2. Azmat Gani, 2022. "Using a consumer choice model to explain the effect of the newly developed oxford COVID-19 government stringency measure on hotel occupancy rates," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4313-4333, December.
    3. Wamboye, Evelyn F. & Nyaronga, Peter John & Sergi, Bruno S., 2020. "What are the determinant of international tourism in Tanzania?," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    4. Azmat Gani & Michael D. Clemes, 2017. "The main determinants effecting international visitor arrivals in New Zealand," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 921-940, August.

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