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Instability in trade flows as a cause of economic stagnation in Africa: an error-correction test

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  • Muhammed Islam
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    Abstract

    This paper identifies export instability as an additional cause of changes in GDP. Instability is measured by deviations of exports from their trend values. A multivariate error-correction model that incorporates export instability is tested on individual time series data (1967-1990) for twenty-one African countries. The results indicate reduction in export-earnings but not any significant decline in GDP growth due to instability. Half of these countries experienced export-to-growth causality, with a reverse causality in three-fourths of them. The results are sensitive to both the omission of variables and the test procedure used.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

    Volume (Year): 3 (1996)
    Issue (Month): 5 ()
    Pages: 359-364

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:3:y:1996:i:5:p:359-364

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