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Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents’ expectations through symbolic regression

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  • Oscar Claveria
  • Enric Monte
  • Salvador Torra

Abstract

Agents’ perceptions on the state of the economy can be affected during economic crises. Tendency surveys are the main source of agents’ expectations. The main objective of this study is to assess the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on agents’ expectations. With this aim, we evaluate the capacity of survey-based expectations to anticipate economic growth in the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom. We propose a symbolic regression (SR) via genetic programming approach to derive mathematical functional forms that link survey-based expectations to GDP growth. By combining the main SR-generated indicators, we generate estimates of the evolution of GDP. Finally, we analyse the effect of the crisis on the formation of expectations, and we find an improvement in the capacity of agents’ expectations to anticipate economic growth after the crisis in all countries except Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents’ expectations through symbolic regression," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(9), pages 648-652, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:24:y:2017:i:9:p:648-652
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2016.1218419
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    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“Tracking economic growth by evolving expectations via genetic programming: A two-step approach”," AQR Working Papers 201801, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jan 2018.
    2. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Forecasting with Business and Consumer Survey Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, February.

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