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On the internal consistency of the term structure of forecasts of housing starts

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  • Christian Pierdzioch
  • Jan-Christoph Rülke
  • Georg Stadtmann

Abstract

We use the term structure of forecasts of housing starts to test for rationality of forecasts. Our test is based on the idea that short-term and long-term forecasts should be internally consistent. We test the internal consistency of forecasts using data for Australia, Canada, Japan and the United States. Using a simple model of forecast formation, we find that forecasts are not internally consistent, leading to a rejection of forecast rationality.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2013. "On the internal consistency of the term structure of forecasts of housing starts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(9), pages 847-851, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:20:y:2013:i:9:p:847-851
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2012.752568
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2013. "Do inflation targets anchor inflation expectations?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 214-223.
    2. Peter Claeys, 2017. "Uncertainty spillover and policy reactions," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 35(82), pages 64-77, April.
    3. Tim Meyer, 2019. "On the Directional Accuracy of United States Housing Starts Forecasts: Evidence from Survey Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 457-488, April.
    4. repec:bdr:ensayo:v:35:y:2017:i:82:p:31-45 is not listed on IDEAS

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