IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/amstat/v77y2023i3p248-258.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bayes Factors and Posterior Estimation: Two Sides of the Very Same Coin

Author

Listed:
  • Harlan Campbell
  • Paul Gustafson

Abstract

Recently, several researchers have claimed that conclusions obtained from a Bayes factor (or the posterior odds) may contradict those obtained from Bayesian posterior estimation. In this article, we wish to point out that no such “contradiction” exists if one is willing to consistently define one’s priors and posteriors. The key for congruence is that the (implied) prior model odds used for testing are the same as those used for estimation. Our recommendation is simple: If one reports a Bayes factor comparing two models, then one should also report posterior estimates which appropriately acknowledge the uncertainty with regards to which of the two models is correct.

Suggested Citation

  • Harlan Campbell & Paul Gustafson, 2023. "Bayes Factors and Posterior Estimation: Two Sides of the Very Same Coin," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 77(3), pages 248-258, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:amstat:v:77:y:2023:i:3:p:248-258
    DOI: 10.1080/00031305.2022.2139293
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00031305.2022.2139293
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00031305.2022.2139293?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:amstat:v:77:y:2023:i:3:p:248-258. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/UTAS20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.