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Applications of Multiple Systems Estimation in Human Rights Research

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  • Kristian Lum
  • Megan Emily Price
  • David Banks

Abstract

Multiple systems estimation (MSE) is becoming an increasingly common approach for exploratory study of underreported events in the field of quantitative human rights. In this context, it is used to estimate the number of people who died as a result of political unrest when it is believed that many of those who died or disappeared were never reported. MSE relies upon several assumptions, each of which may be slightly or significantly violated in particular applications. This article outlines the evolution of the application of MSE to human rights research through the use of three case studies: Guatemala, Peru, and Colombia. Each of these cases presents distinct challenges to the MSE method. Motivated by these applications, we describe new methodology for assessing the impact of violated assumptions in MSE. Our approach uses simulations to explore the cumulative magnitude of errors introduced by violation of the model assumptions at each stage in the analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristian Lum & Megan Emily Price & David Banks, 2013. "Applications of Multiple Systems Estimation in Human Rights Research," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 67(4), pages 191-200, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:amstat:v:67:y:2013:i:4:p:191-200
    DOI: 10.1080/00031305.2013.821093
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    Cited by:

    1. Xinyi Lu & Mevin B. Hooten & Andee Kaplan & Jamie N. Womble & Michael R. Bower, 2022. "Improving Wildlife Population Inference Using Aerial Imagery and Entity Resolution," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 364-381, June.
    2. Olivier Binette & Rebecca C. Steorts, 2022. "On the reliability of multiple systems estimation for the quantification of modern slavery," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(2), pages 640-676, April.
    3. Hannes Mueller & André Groeger & Jonathan Hersh & Andrea Matranga & Joan Serrat, 2021. "Monitoring War Destruction from Space Using Machine Learning," Working Papers 1257, Barcelona School of Economics.
    4. Amelia Hoover Green & Patrick Ball, 2019. "Civilian killings and disappearances during civil war in El Salvador (1980‒1992)," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(27), pages 781-814.
    5. Cullen S. Hendrix & Idean Salehyan, 2015. "No News Is Good News: Mark and Recapture for Event Data When Reporting Probabilities Are Less Than One," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 392-406, March.

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