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Determinants of the Indonesia's current account balance: an error correction model approach

Author

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  • Nur Feriyantoa

    (Islamic University of Indonesia, Indonesia)

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the relationship between exchange rate, Domestic Money Supply (M2), real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on Indonesia’s current account balance (CAB) in the short and long term. For the purpose of this study, the Error Correction Model (ECM) is used. It uses data during the period 2000-2017. The result showed that (a) M2, real GDP, and FDI in the short-term have not significant effect on Indonesia’s current account but exchange rate has a significant negative effect; (b) in the long-term exchange rate, M2, and real GDP have not significant effect on Indonesia’s CAB, while FDI has a negative significant effect on Indonesia’s CAB. Policy recommendation for government as an implication of this study (a) stabilize the exchange rate in order to decrease current account deficit (CAD); (b) improve the investment climate and issue incentive policies for local investor; (c) increase the competitiveness of export-oriented products and reduce dependence on imports.

Suggested Citation

  • Nur Feriyantoa, 2020. "Determinants of the Indonesia's current account balance: an error correction model approach," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 7(4), pages 3410-3425, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssi:jouesi:v:7:y:2020:i:4:p:3410-3425
    DOI: 10.9770/jesi.2020.7.4(55)
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gnimassoun, Blaise & Mignon, Valérie, 2016. "How Do Macroeconomic Imbalances Interact? Evidence From A Panel Var Analysis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(7), pages 1717-1741, October.
    2. Kamrul Hassan & Ariful Hoque & Ananth Rao, 2016. "Sustainability of Malaysian current account balance: Evidence from ardl bounds tests approach," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 50(5), pages 199-214, Special I.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; domestic money supply; real GDP; Foreign Direct Investment; Indonesia's current account;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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