IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/srs/jemt00/v9y2018i6p1135-1144.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting the Foreign Tourist Arrivals to Vietnam Using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Method

Author

Listed:
  • Le TUNG

    (Faculty of Economics and Public Management Ho Chi Minh City Open University Vietnam)

Abstract

The tourism has been recognized as the most important service sector in the economic development strategy of the Vietnamese government for the decades The number of foreign visitors to Vietnam has increased rapidly over the years however the quality of the forecasting work has not met the requirements of the planning development The serious over loading of Vietnamese infrastructure as well as serving network has come by the problems in the forecasting There is a large gap between the forecasting information and the real growth of the tourism sector in Vietnam In order to solve this issue our paper employs the ARIMA method to identify a more suitable tool for forecasting the foreign tourist arrivals to Vietnam The data is used by the monthly form collected from the January 2009 to June 2018 The regression result determines the ARIMA 2 1 12 is the optimal model and applied to forecast the number of visitors come to Vietnam for three months of the third quarter in 2018 Finally our study result provides a useful forecasting tool for not only the Vietnamese policymakers but also the businesses in the tourism sector in Vietnam in the future

Suggested Citation

  • Le TUNG, 2018. "Forecasting the Foreign Tourist Arrivals to Vietnam Using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Method," Journal of Advanced Research in Management, ASERS Publishing, vol. 9(6), pages 1135-1144.
    • Handle: RePEc:srs:jemt00:v:9:y:2018:i:6:p:1135-1144
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Le Thanh Tung & Le Kien Cuong, 2020. "Impact of Tourism on Poverty Reduction - Evidence from an Emerging Tourism Market," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 16(3), pages 45-55.
    2. José Antonio Cava Jiménez & María Genoveva Millán Vázquez de la Torre & Ricardo Hernández Rojas, 2019. "Analysis of the Tourism Demand for Iberian Ham Routes in Andalusia (Southern Spain): Tourist Profile," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-21, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:srs:jemt00:v:9:y:2018:i:6:p:1135-1144. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Claudiu Popirlan (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://journals.aserspublishing.eu/jemt .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.