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Tests of the Overreaction Hypothesis and the Timing of Mean Reversals on the JSE Securities Exchange (JSE): the Case of South Africa

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  • Heng-Hsing Hsieh
  • Kathleen Hodnett

Abstract

Abstact This paper examines the overreaction hypothesis on the JSE Securities Exchange (JSE) documented by Page and Way [5] and Muller [4] over a longer and more recent period from 01 January 1993 to 31 March 2009. The mean reversals due to investor overreaction are found to be stronger for the past winner and loser portfolios with longer formation periods. Similar to the results of De Bondt and Thaler [1] and Page and Way [5], the loser portfolios exhibit stronger mean reversals than their winner counterparts over the examination period. The delayed mean reversals for the winner portfolios might be attributable to behavioral biases such as fear of regret or being reference dependent, which cause investors to hold on too long to the past winners. The strength of mean reversals is found to be cyclical and fluctuates around the South African business cycle. Study results also suggest that contrarian investing could be a safe haven during the financial market turmoil due to their low correlations with the market during the economic downturn.

Suggested Citation

  • Heng-Hsing Hsieh & Kathleen Hodnett, 2011. "Tests of the Overreaction Hypothesis and the Timing of Mean Reversals on the JSE Securities Exchange (JSE): the Case of South Africa," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 1-5.
    • Handle: RePEc:spt:apfiba:v:1:y:2011:i:1:f:1_1_5
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    Cited by:

    1. Kuttu, Saint, 2017. "Time-varying conditional discrete jumps in emerging African equity markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 35-54.
    2. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.
    3. Morales-Pelagio, Ricardo Cristhian & López-Herrera, Francisco & Cabrera-Llanos, Agustín Ignacio, 2013. "Eficiencia de las principales acciones de la bolsa mexicana de valores: 2001-2012," eseconomía, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(37), pages 55-75, primer tr.
    4. Hani Nuri Rohuma, 2023. "Fama and French (1993) Three-Factor Model: Evidence from Conventional and Shariah-Compliant Portfolios in Bursa Malaysia," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 17(7), pages 1-66, February.

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