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Technical Analysis, Business Cycle, and Stock Market Returns

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  • Jinpeng Ma
  • Yuming Wang

Abstract

This article provides nine profitable timing strategies based on the technical analysis of two specific macroeconomic variables (i.e., capacity utilization rate and unemployment rate). The success of our strategies is explained by the high persistence in the business cycle, which allows the two macroeconomic variables to anticipate future business conditions better than the S&P500 index. Furthermore, they create additional value in timing the market as the changes in stock prices reflect subsequent changes in business conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jinpeng Ma & Yuming Wang, 2015. "Technical Analysis, Business Cycle, and Stock Market Returns," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 1-3.
    • Handle: RePEc:spt:admaec:v:5:y:2015:i:2:f:5_2_3
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    Cited by:

    1. Zuzana Gric & Josef Bajzik & Ondrej Badura, 2021. "Does Sentiment Affect Stock Returns? A Meta-analysis Across Survey-based Measures," Working Papers 2021/10, Czech National Bank.

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