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A Two-Stage Stochastic Water Resources Planning Approach with Fuzzy Boundary Interval Based on Risk Control and Balanced Development

Author

Listed:
  • Tao Wang

    (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research)

  • Jiaqi Zhai

    (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research)

  • Haihong Li

    (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research)

  • Yifei Zhao

    (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
    China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research)

  • Longlong Zhang

    (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research)

  • Kuan Liu

    (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
    Tianjin University)

Abstract

Establishing rational water resource allocation planning is critical for controlling risks within the water resource system and mitigating supply–demand pressures. Various risk elements within a water resource system transform, making it challenging to accurately represent the system response to different risk control measures using mathematical models. Therefore, in response to the risks and uncertainties present in the allocation process, this study aims to maximize comprehensive regional economic benefits. It combines risk control measures with balanced development strategies as model constraints and introduces approaches such as discrete intervals and fuzzy numbers to characterize multiple layers of uncertainty. Applying this model to a case study in Beijing, the results reveal that the overall water supply situation for the city in 2030 is not optimistic, particularly when both Beijing and the Danjiangkou Reservoir experience reduced inflows, potentially leading to a water supply deficit of [5.79 × 108, 10.90 × 108] m3.

Suggested Citation

  • Tao Wang & Jiaqi Zhai & Haihong Li & Yifei Zhao & Longlong Zhang & Kuan Liu, 2024. "A Two-Stage Stochastic Water Resources Planning Approach with Fuzzy Boundary Interval Based on Risk Control and Balanced Development," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(3), pages 835-860, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:38:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s11269-023-03673-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-023-03673-z
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