A Set Pair Analysis Method for Assessing and Forecasting Water Conflict Risk in Transboundary River Basins

Water conflicts (WACT) in shared river basins have become one of the factors that restrict regional economic development and social stability. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate water conflict risk (WACR) when managing transboundary river basins. In this research article, in order to accurately and effectively forecast the water conflict risk level, a three-stage process is implemented. Firstly, an evaluation framework for WACR was constructed. The framework consists of four drivers of water conflict: conflict because of water quantity reduction, conflict as a result of differences in water use efficiency, conflict due to disparities in economic and social value of water, and conflict caused by the differences on the amount of water allocated to ensure the integrity of the ecological environment. Secondly, a conflict risk evaluation model was established based on subtraction set pair potential to assess the static evaluation of the WACR. Thirdly, the Grey correlation model is used to forecast data to dynamically predict WACR in the future. The Mekong River Basin (MRB) was selected as a case study to test the validity of the framework. Hence, the following results are obtained: (1) The risk of water conflict in the MRB is always at a medium level. (2) China has the highest risk of water quantity conflict. Laos and Myanmar have a very high water efficiency conflict risk. The risk of economic and social conflict in Cambodia, Myanmar, and Vietnam is at a medium degree. The risk of ecological environmental conflict in Laos and Thailand is at a medium level. (3) From 2022 to 2027, WACT in the MRB decreased to a low risk. Based on this, risk prevention measures are put forward for water cooperation in the MRB.