Resolving Trans-Boundary Water Conflicts: Third-Party Mediation Using an Inverse Approach of GMCR Under Incomplete Preference Environments

Trans-boundary water conflicts and the ensuing social security have become concerning issues. However, the existing studies regarding trans-boundary water management mainly focus on river basin countries while ignoring the important role of third-party mediation institutions in resolving water conflicts. Thus, river basin countries and third-party mediation institutions are the objects of this research, which focuses on the strategies and behavior of third-party mediation institutions that are significant in alleviating conflict situations and formulating sustainable trans-boundary water resource allocation plans. The factors that influence the decision-making of third-party mediation institutions are determined based on other decision makers’ (DMs’) known preferences. Therefore, according to the uncertainty theory and the cognitive preference model, a novel inverse problem model of the graph model for conflict resolution is constructed to obtain the required DM preference information in complex and uncertain conflicts. Then, the new proposed method is applied to trans-boundary water conflicts in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin to illustrate its correctness and practicality. The results show that (1) a third-party management institution can directly promote a win–win situation among all DMs by obtaining other DMs’ preferences; (2) effective supervision by a third party can promote all those involved to reach a stable state faster; and (3) third parties can promote sustainable trans-boundary water resource allocation. The proposed methods and analysis results offer decision-making support for third-party management institutions in trans-boundary water resource conflicts and provide a scientific basis for mediating similar water resource conflicts within and beyond China.