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Detecting Rainfall Trend and Development of Future Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) Curve for the State of Kelantan

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Saiful Adham Shukor

    (Universiti Teknologi Malaysia)

  • Zulkifli Yusop

    (Universiti Teknologi Malaysia)

  • Fadhillah Yusof

    (Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM))

  • Zulfaqar Sa’adi

    (Universiti Teknologi Malaysia)

  • Nor Eliza Alias

    (Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM))

Abstract

Due to global warming, the existing IDF curves that were derived from historical data may no longer valid for estimating future rainfall. On the other hand, the alternative future rainfall data generated from Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) cannot be used directly due to systematic biases caused by non-inclusion of local features. Quantile mapping was used to bias correct the rainfall data generated by CCSM3 model based on the properties of observed rainfall. Only 4 out of 16 stations in the state of Kelantan have shown an increasing significant trend for 1-h annual maximum rainfall. The best transfer function used to correct bias in CCSM3 data is the second order polynomial function. The quantile mapping for bias correction is satisfactory as the highest RMSE was only 4.045, a reduction by 15% compared to the original CCSM3 data. Subsequently, a unique transfer function was developed to represent the behavior of CCSM3 and observed data for each station. The future intensity was found to increase for short and medium return periods of 2-, 5-, 10- and 25-year, where most of the stations have Climate Change Factor (CCF) larger than 1. On the contrary, for a longer return period of 50- and 100-year, the intensities are predicted to be lower.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Saiful Adham Shukor & Zulkifli Yusop & Fadhillah Yusof & Zulfaqar Sa’adi & Nor Eliza Alias, 2020. "Detecting Rainfall Trend and Development of Future Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) Curve for the State of Kelantan," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(10), pages 3165-3182, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:34:y:2020:i:10:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02602-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02602-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yongxin Zhang & Yun Qian & Valérie Dulière & Eric Salathé & L. Leung, 2012. "ENSO anomalies over the Western United States: present and future patterns in regional climate simulations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 315-346, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Subhra Sekhar Maity & Rajib Maity, 2022. "Changing Pattern of Intensity–Duration–Frequency Relationship of Precipitation due to Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(14), pages 5371-5399, November.
    2. Wan Amirul Syahmi Wan Mazlan & Nurul Nadrah Aqilah Tukimat, 2023. "Comparative Analyses on Disaggregation Methods for the Rainfall Projection," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(10), pages 4195-4209, August.
    3. Martín Montenegro & Daniel Mendoza & Diego Mora & Fernando García & Alex Avilés, 2022. "Extreme Rainfall Variations Under Climate Change Scenarios. Case of Study in an Andean Tropical River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(15), pages 5931-5944, December.
    4. Ioannis M. Kourtis & Harris Vangelis & Dimitris Tigkas & Anna Mamara & Ioannis Nalbantis & George Tsakiris & Vassilios A. Tsihrintzis, 2023. "Drought Assessment in Greece Using SPI and ERA5 Climate Reanalysis Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-19, November.
    5. Fahad Alzahrani & Ousmane Seidou & Abdullah Alodah, 2022. "Assessment and Improvement of IDF Generation Algorithms Used in the IDF_CC Tool," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(12), pages 4591-4606, September.
    6. Shadi Arfa & Mohsen Nasseri & Hassan Tavakol-Davani, 2021. "Comparing the Effects of Different Daily and Sub-Daily Downscaling Approaches on the Response of Urban Stormwater Collection Systems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(2), pages 505-533, January.
    7. Ioannis M. Kourtis & Ioannis Nalbantis & George Tsakiris & Basil Ε. Psiloglou & Vassilios A. Tsihrintzis, 2023. "Updating IDF Curves Under Climate Change: Impact on Rainfall-Induced Runoff in Urban Basins," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2403-2428, May.

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