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Reservoir Inflow Modeling Using Temporal Neural Networks with Forgetting Factor Approach

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  • Saman Razavi
  • Shahab Araghinejad

Abstract

In this paper, a recursive training procedure with forgetting factor is proposed for on-line calibration of temporal neural networks. The forgetting factor discounts old measurements through an on-line model calibration. The forgetting factor approach enables the recursive algorithm to reduce the effect of the older error data by multiplying the error data by a discounting factor. The proposed procedure is used to calibrate a temporal neural network for reservoir inflow modeling. The mean monthly inflow of the Karoon-III reservoir dam in the south-western part of Iran is used to test the performance of the proposed approach. An autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is also applied to the same data. The temporal neural network, which is trained with the proposed approach, has shown a significant improvement in the forecast accuracy in comparison with the network trained by the conventional method. It is also demonstrated that the neural network trained with forgetting factor results in better forecasts compared to the statistical ARMA model, which has been calibrated through this approach. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Saman Razavi & Shahab Araghinejad, 2009. "Reservoir Inflow Modeling Using Temporal Neural Networks with Forgetting Factor Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(1), pages 39-55, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:23:y:2009:i:1:p:39-55
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-008-9263-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Juran Ahmed & Arup Sarma, 2007. "Artificial neural network model for synthetic streamflow generation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(6), pages 1015-1029, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chuan Li & Yun Bai & Bo Zeng, 2016. "Deep Feature Learning Architectures for Daily Reservoir Inflow Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5145-5161, November.
    2. Huaizhi Su & Zhiping Wen & Zhongru Wu, 2011. "Study on an Intelligent Inference Engine in Early-Warning System of Dam Health," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(6), pages 1545-1563, April.
    3. Yutao Qi & Zhanao Zhou & Lingling Yang & Yining Quan & Qiguang Miao, 2019. "A Decomposition-Ensemble Learning Model Based on LSTM Neural Network for Daily Reservoir Inflow Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(12), pages 4123-4139, September.
    4. Chih-Chiang Wei & Nien-Sheng Hsu & Chien-Lin Huang, 2016. "Rainfall-Runoff Prediction Using Dynamic Typhoon Information and Surface Weather Characteristic Considering Monsoon Effects," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 877-895, January.
    5. Jehangir Awan & Deg-Hyo Bae, 2014. "Improving ANFIS Based Model for Long-term Dam Inflow Prediction by Incorporating Monthly Rainfall Forecasts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1185-1199, March.
    6. Chih-Chiang Wei & Nien-Sheng Hsu & Chien-Lin Huang, 2016. "Rainfall-Runoff Prediction Using Dynamic Typhoon Information and Surface Weather Characteristic Considering Monsoon Effects," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 877-895, January.

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