Factors of Investment Activity in the Russian Economy: Conclusions 2022

— The dynamics of the Russian economy in 2022 did not develop along the trajectories expected in most forecasts. Investments in fixed assets, contrary to expectations, decreased slightly; some industries have seen growth. The article offers an analysis of the 2022 results from the point of view of justification of views on the factors determining investment dynamics. Based on the views on investment issues in Russian scientific publications preceding 2022, the processes that took place this year are presented as a set of shock events. Based on Rosstat data, descriptive statistics of investments in fixed assets are shown: the investment crisis that could have been expected from the experience of COVID-2019 or 2014–2015 did not happen. An assessment of investment activity factors from a business perspective is also presented (based on a sample survey conducted by Rosstat). For the factors of investment activity under consideration, signs (characteristics), which were compared with the dynamics of the index of the physical volume of investments in fixed capital were identified. The analysis was carried out using data and information from the Bank of Russia. The role of at least some institutional factors in Russian conditions is apparently not as great as is commonly believed: in the short term, even serious deteriorations in the institutional environment do not immediately lead to comparable changes in investment activity. The sectors of transport, logistics, and wholesale trade have shown sufficient flexibility and willingness to invest even in conditions of uncertainty. The greatest contribution to the dynamics of investment were apparently driven by the availability of resources, including credit (not only investment), the presence of confirmed effective demand and the technological dependence of Russian industries. It is important to focus in interests of stimulating economic growth especially on these areas.