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Target Scenario of Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions Socio-Economic Development of Russia for the Period until 2060

Author

Listed:
  • A. A. Shirov

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • A. Yu. Kolpakov

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

— The article considers methodological and practical issues of assessing the effects of measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the context of development and implementation of a strategy of Russia’s socio-economic development. The authors substantiate the relevance of investments in decarbonization measures, as well as the associated benefits (demand for the products of fund-creating industries) and costs (price increases and negative consumer reaction). The target scenario of low greenhouse gas emissions socio-economic development of Russia is based on a predictive and analytical toolkit based on the input/output method and on the database of the National Inventory of Anthropogenic Emissions. The target scenario combines an active economic policy with ambitious actions towards reducing net emissions: within the scenario, the average annual growth rate of Russia’s GDP is 2.6% and carbon neutrality is achieved by 2060. A more aggressive scenario of ensuring carbon neutrality by 2050 is characterized by significantly worse indicators of economic efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • A. A. Shirov & A. Yu. Kolpakov, 2023. "Target Scenario of Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions Socio-Economic Development of Russia for the Period until 2060," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 34(6), pages 758-768, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:34:y:2023:i:6:d:10.1134_s1075700723060151
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700723060151
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